Predictions are cheap until they carry a date. This page keeps the ledger: what I claimed, when, on what horizon, and whether it held. Scored publicly when the answer arrives. Misses stay on the page; that is what makes the rest worth reading.
Experience becomes a standard diligence category in residential investment, the way ESG did: in every IC pack, governed by disclosure, priced by debt. From "The fifth diligence."
HORIZON 2030 OPENThe first institutional owner reports healthy-year outcomes next to its ESG scores, and defines what good looks like before a benchmark does. From "The wrong floor."
HORIZON 2029 OPENCapital markets underwrite residential experience cashflows directly, the way twenty institutions underwrote a stadium’s hospitality and museum income. From "The stadium figured it out first."
HORIZON 2028 OPENBefore the end of 2029, a European residential operating platform changes hands without its buildings. That price will be the first public number for the red centre in housing. From "Soft is the most expensive word in real estate."
HORIZON 2029 OPEN